The industrial sector of Pakistan is displaying a highly complex performance pattern as the fiscal year 2025-26 approaches its conclusion. According to the latest provisional data released by official statistical authorities using the 2015-16 base year, the country’s Large Scale Manufacturing Industries output recorded a slight year-on-year decline of 0.98 percent in May 2026. This minor contraction occurred even as industrial production managed to achieve a modest month-on-month recovery of 1.21 percent compared to April 2026. The Quantum Index of Manufacturing stood at 116.10 in May 2026, which is a decline from the 117.25 recorded in May of the previous year, but a step up from the 114.71 registered in April 2026.
Despite the minor slowdown in monthly momentum during May, the long-term industrial trajectory for Pakistan remains on steady ground. On a cumulative basis, the large-scale manufacturing sector posted an overall growth of 5.77 percent during the eleven-month period spanning from July to May of the fiscal year 2025-26. Over this extended timeframe, the Quantum Index of Manufacturing averaged 121.65, showcasing a healthy improvement from the average of 115.02 recorded during the same cumulative period in the preceding fiscal year. This sustained growth indicates that while individual months may face short-term supply chain or demand bottlenecks, the broader industrial base has maintained its recovery path.
The performance across various manufacturing segments in May was highly polarized, with some industries thriving while others faced severe downward pressure. The monthly indicators were led upward by robust performances in the automobile, sugar, and petroleum sectors. Conversely, the overall manufacturing index was heavily dragged down by contractions in the iron and steel, chemical fertilizers, and cement sectors. This divergence highlights how differing raw material costs, energy tariffs, and market demand dynamics are affecting individual manufacturing divisions differently.
The automobile industry has successfully sustained its strong growth trajectory, registering a 20.81 percent increase in May 2026 and a massive cumulative expansion of 58.82 percent during the July-May fiscal period. Similarly, the sugar sector posted a strong monthly output gain of 23.25 percent, contributing to an overall cumulative growth of 31.54 percent over the eleven-month period. Petroleum products also performed exceptionally well, expanding by 15.75 percent in May and maintaining a cumulative yearly gain of 10.56 percent, while the garments division grew by 7.05 percent during the month to push its yearly cumulative growth to 7.31 percent.
In contrast, several heavy industries struggled to maintain their previous momentum. The cement sector, which has been affected by slow construction activity, saw its monthly output fall by 9.36 percent in May, though it managed to preserve a cumulative gain of 7.16 percent for the fiscal year. Chemical fertilizers contracted by 4.77 percent during the month, bringing its cumulative yearly decline to 2.25 percent. The iron and steel sector continued its persistent downward slide, dropping 12.57 percent in May and registering a cumulative contraction of 7.49 percent for the eleven-month period.
When evaluating the overall cumulative growth of 5.77 percent, the primary positive drivers were automobiles, which contributed 1.53 percentage points, followed closely by food products at 1.36 percentage points, and garments at 1.20 percentage points. Other positive contributors included petroleum products, electrical equipment, cement, and furniture. On the other hand, the overall industrial index faced negative drag from the pharmaceutical sector, which cut 0.49 percentage points from the growth rate, followed by iron and steel products, chemicals, and textiles. This mixed industrial performance suggests that while key consumer sectors like autos and garments continue to anchor national growth, critical base industries remain under notable operational pressure.
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