The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, citing stronger-than-expected investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and changes in international supply chains. In its Global Trade Outlook Update 2026, the Geneva-based organisation revised its projection for merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9% for 2026 and 4.1% for 2027, compared with earlier estimates of 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively. The revised outlook comes amid disruptions to international shipping and energy supplies associated with the ongoing Middle East conflict. The WTO also identified Pakistan among the economies benefiting from certain changes in trade routes, pointing to higher sea freight transport service exports and an increase in vessel activity at major container terminals in Karachi. However, the organisation warned that shipping congestion, rising transportation costs and uncertainty surrounding the conflict continue to pose risks to international trade.
According to the WTO, the global economy has demonstrated greater resilience than previously anticipated, supported by increased investment in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure and additional supplies of fuels and fertilisers from countries outside the Middle East. These developments have helped offset some of the negative effects of disrupted commodity shipments and transportation routes. The revised projections represent a substantial improvement on the estimates issued at the beginning of the United States-Iran conflict in March 2026. However, the organisation’s assessment indicates that the benefits have not been distributed evenly across countries and industries. While some economies have gained from redirected shipping traffic and increased demand for technology-related goods and services, others continue to face higher input costs, reduced transport capacity and pressure on traditional service industries.
Pakistan’s shipping sector has emerged as one of the areas benefiting from changes in international maritime traffic. The WTO reported that the country’s exports of sea freight transport services increased by 73% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, as transport operators benefited from higher traffic. Vessel calls at major container terminals in Karachi were also 14% higher year-on-year in July, according to the organisation. These developments indicate that changes in shipping routes have created additional activity for some Pakistani transport operators and port facilities. However, the increase in maritime traffic has also placed pressure on capacity across South Asia, as vessels and containers are redirected towards alternative ports and transshipment hubs. The resulting congestion has increased waiting times and transportation expenses, creating a more complicated operating environment for carriers, exporters and importers.
The WTO highlighted the financial consequences of these shipping disruptions, noting that longer waiting periods and transit times were increasing costs for transport companies and traders. Some of these additional expenses could eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices. In July, Mediterranean Shipping Company introduced a congestion surcharge of $500 per container on shipments from Northern Europe to India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The surcharge illustrates how changes in shipping routes can affect the cost of moving goods across regional trade networks. Although increased vessel activity can generate opportunities for ports and transport service providers, higher charges and capacity constraints may reduce the benefits for businesses that depend on international freight services. Pakistani exporters and importers therefore face both potential gains from redirected traffic and additional costs associated with congestion.
Digital services have also contributed to Pakistan’s performance in international trade. The WTO reported that computer services exports from Pakistan increased by 23% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. Malaysia recorded stronger growth of 34%, while Brazil’s computer services exports rose by 13% over the same period. The figures highlight the continued importance of technology-related services in global trade, particularly as businesses increase investment in digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence. The WTO noted that artificial intelligence investment is supporting trade in computer and financial services, while the wider digitisation of the global economy is expected to continue influencing demand for technology-related products and services. Pakistan’s increase in computer services exports places its digital sector among the areas experiencing growth despite uncertainty affecting other parts of the global economy.
Despite the stronger merchandise trade outlook, the WTO lowered its forecast for commercial services trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.3%, down from its earlier estimate of 4.8%. The organisation attributed the revision partly to the effects of the Middle East conflict on travel and tourism, alongside higher fuel costs affecting transportation and other service industries. For 2027, commercial services trade volume growth is projected to reach 6.4%, while merchandise trade volume is expected to expand by 4.1%. These projections depend on a timely resolution of the conflict, according to the WTO. Based on the forecasts, global trade in goods and services combined is expected to grow by approximately 3.7% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. The figures suggest that merchandise trade is currently providing stronger support to overall trade growth than several traditional services sectors.
The WTO attributed the stronger merchandise trade performance to two opposing forces. Increased spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure has boosted demand for goods required to build and operate data centres and related technology systems. AI-enabling products accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in value terms during the first half of 2026, according to the report. At the same time, reduced shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilisers have weighed on trade by restricting supplies and increasing pressure on commodity markets. During the period covered by the report, the positive contribution from technology-related demand outweighed the negative effects of reduced commodity shipments. The organisation expects continued AI investment and broader digitisation to support merchandise trade growth above the rate of global gross domestic product growth in 2027, although disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies could keep commodity prices elevated.
Trade values have also increased more rapidly than the physical volume of goods exchanged. The WTO reported that the value of global merchandise trade in US dollars rose by 15% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, compared with growth of 3.5% in volume terms. The organisation attributed this unusually wide gap partly to higher prices for fuels and electronic components used in data centres. This distinction is important because an increase in the monetary value of trade does not necessarily indicate a comparable increase in the quantity of goods transported. Higher prices can raise the overall value of transactions even when the growth in physical shipments remains relatively modest. For businesses and policymakers, the difference provides additional context for assessing trade performance during a period of supply constraints and elevated costs.
The organisation also warned that several risks could affect its projections. A sustained gap between crude oil and refined oil prices is reducing households’ purchasing power and weighing on trade growth, while a slowdown or reversal in AI investment could have a significant impact because technology-related spending involves substantial imports. The WTO further noted that trade patterns remain influenced by geopolitical considerations, although the gap between trade within geopolitical blocs and trade between them narrowed through 2025 and into 2026. The organisation said the broader pattern of bloc-based fragmentation had not continued to intensify during that period, while the separation of trade between the United States and China had accelerated since 2025 and had become the main driver of the divergence.
For Pakistan, the outlook presents opportunities in maritime transport and digital services, but the benefits will depend on the country’s ability to manage higher logistics costs and maintain the competitiveness of its exporters. Increased shipping activity at Karachi’s container terminals and growth in computer services exports provide evidence of gains in selected areas of international trade. At the same time, congestion surcharges, fuel-price pressures and uncertainty surrounding global supply chains remain significant challenges. The WTO’s revised forecast points to stronger overall merchandise trade growth, but its projections also underline how international trade performance increasingly depends on technology investment, energy availability, transport capacity and geopolitical developments.
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