Climate Shocks Hit Agriculture Hard, but Pakistan’s Farming Sector Begins Rebound

Pakistan’s agriculture sector, a cornerstone of the national economy, has faced severe setbacks following the recent floods that caused widespread damage to major crops and rural livelihoods. However, early indicators now suggest that the sector is beginning to recover, supported by targeted policy interventions, enhanced financial access, and improved resource availability. The recovery trajectory points toward gradual stabilization, reflecting the resilience of Pakistan’s farming community and the effectiveness of institutional responses.

According to a preliminary government assessment, the devastating floods inflicted an estimated Rs. 430 billion in losses on the agriculture sector. Key crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize, fodder, and vegetables were among the most affected, with extensive damage to farmlands and irrigation networks disrupting rural supply chains. These shocks not only impacted domestic food security but also temporarily constrained exports of key agricultural commodities.

Despite these challenges, several key metrics now indicate that recovery is gaining traction. The State Bank of Pakistan’s latest data shows a substantial rise in agricultural credit disbursement, reflecting renewed lending confidence and active demand for farm financing. During the first two months of FY2026 (July–August), agricultural credit reached Rs. 404.2 billion, marking a 19.5 percent increase compared to Rs. 338.2 billion during the same period last year. This surge in financing is helping farmers rebuild assets, purchase inputs, and invest in new technologies to restore productivity.

Similarly, the country’s agricultural modernization efforts have shown tangible progress. Imports of agricultural machinery during the July–September FY2026 period rose sharply by 31.3 percent, reaching $39.3 million compared to $29.9 million in the same quarter last year. This increase underscores the growing adoption of mechanized farming tools, which are essential for improving efficiency, enhancing yield quality, and reducing post-harvest losses. The higher imports also reflect a positive response to government incentives aimed at accelerating mechanization and modern farming practices.

Fertilizer offtake trends further highlight the recovery momentum. During the Kharif 2025 season (April–September), urea offtake increased by 13.1 percent to 3,105 thousand tonnes, while DAP consumption rose modestly by 1.2 percent to 650 thousand tonnes compared to Kharif 2024. The uptick in fertilizer usage is a strong signal that farming operations are resuming, with greater emphasis on soil nourishment and productivity optimization. These indicators collectively reflect a gradual revival of the sector’s operational capacity despite the challenges brought by climate-related disruptions.

Experts note that the quick recovery can be attributed to a combination of policy support, enhanced credit facilities, and resilient farmer responses. The government’s continued focus on sustainable agricultural financing, coupled with targeted relief programs in flood-affected areas, has been critical in stabilizing farm-level operations. Furthermore, the banking sector’s proactive disbursement of funds and emphasis on agri-finance innovation have played a significant role in mitigating the adverse economic effects of the floods.

The revival of agriculture also holds broader economic implications. As one of Pakistan’s largest employers and contributors to GDP, a strong rebound in this sector can stimulate rural consumption, strengthen export potential, and reinforce overall economic stability. The ongoing progress aligns with national goals of achieving food security, promoting sustainable practices, and enhancing resilience against climate change.

While the recovery is still in its early stages, the current trajectory provides cautious optimism for a more sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural ecosystem. Continued collaboration between financial institutions, government agencies, and the farming community will be essential to maintain this upward trend and ensure long-term rural development.

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