The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has highlighted a critical data gap in Pakistan’s national census, warning that the absence of employment status information significantly limits the country’s ability to assess how climate shocks such as heat stress and air pollution affect its workforce.
In its latest report titled Heat stress, air pollution risk, and population exposure: evidence from selected Asian countries, the ADB noted that Pakistan’s census does not record employment status, restricting analysis to general population exposure rather than worker-specific impacts. As a result, policymakers lack insight into how climate-related risks influence labour productivity, working conditions, and economic outcomes for employed populations.
The Bank emphasised that understanding climate exposure at the worker level is essential, particularly for countries like Pakistan where a large share of employment is concentrated in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, construction, transport, and manufacturing. Without employment-linked census data, it becomes difficult to quantify how rising temperatures and worsening air quality affect workers differently from the general population.
The report noted that Pakistan’s air pollution is largely driven by industrial activity and traffic-related emissions, including persistent smog in major urban centres. Unlike some regional peers, Pakistan experiences relatively limited seasonal variation in pollution levels. This means that harmful air quality conditions persist throughout the year rather than peaking sharply during specific seasons.
In contrast, the ADB compared Pakistan with Bangladesh, where air pollution follows a clearer seasonal pattern. In Bangladesh, winter atmospheric conditions allow pollutants to accumulate, while monsoon rainfall and stronger winds during summer significantly reduce pollution levels. Pakistan, however, is influenced by westerly winds, desert airflows, dust storms, and diverse topography, resulting in weaker and less uniform seasonal pollution trends.
According to the report, Pakistan shows a positive correlation between heat stress and air pollution over the past two decades. PM2.5 concentrations increased markedly between 2000 and 2020, with the range expanding from 0–80 micrograms per cubic metre in 2000 to 0–100 micrograms per cubic metre in 2020. This indicates a rise in extreme pollution events over time.
While the number of district-months recording PM2.5 levels above 80 micrograms per cubic metre was higher in 2020 than in 2000, the report also found that average concentrations below this threshold declined. This suggests that while extreme pollution episodes have become more frequent, lower and mid-range pollution levels may have moderated in some areas.
The ADB observed that the correlation between temperature and PM2.5 levels remained positive throughout the study period, although the strength of this relationship weakened over time. Pearson correlation coefficients declined from 0.39 in 2000 to 0.20 in 2020, indicating that although simultaneous exposure to heat stress and air pollution persists in certain districts, the linkage has become less pronounced on average.
Importantly, the report found no clear seasonal pattern in PM2.5 concentrations across Pakistan, with similar pollution trends observed during both hot and cold months. The Bank attributed this flat seasonal profile to Pakistan’s diverse climatic zones, irregular rainfall patterns, and frequent dust storms, which contribute to elevated natural PM2.5 levels and offset potential pollution reductions during summer months.
Beyond Pakistan, the ADB highlighted broader limitations in census geo-information across several countries in the region. It noted that climate impacts are highly localised, and aggregating data at higher administrative levels can introduce significant measurement errors. Such limitations, the report warned, constrain accurate assessment of how temperature and air pollution affect individuals, particularly workers exposed to outdoor or high-intensity labour conditions.
The ADB stressed that improving census and labour data collection, including employment status and more granular geographic information, is essential for designing effective climate adaptation policies. Without such data, governments risk underestimating the economic and social costs of climate stress on workers and missing opportunities to protect productivity, public health, and long-term growth.
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