The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on Pakistan to explain and publicly disclose a staggering $11 billion discrepancy in its trade data recorded over the last two fiscal years. The inconsistency, which stems from conflicting figures reported by two government entities — Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and the Pakistan Single Window (PSW) — has prompted questions about the accuracy of the nation’s external sector statistics and the credibility of its economic reporting.
According to government sources, imports reported by PRAL were approximately $5.1 billion lower than those recorded by PSW during fiscal year 2023-24. The gap widened further in the following year, reaching $5.7 billion. PSW’s data, which is regarded as more comprehensive and inclusive of all import entries, was also found to be higher than the freight-on-board (FoB) based import data published by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The central bank’s data had been used to calculate the country’s current account surplus for the same period.
In recent meetings between Pakistani officials and the IMF, the issue was discussed at length, following the lender’s direct approach to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) before the start of review talks. The IMF expressed concern over inconsistencies in trade reporting and recommended that Pakistan adopt a clear communication strategy to explain the methodological changes and data variations. The Fund stressed that unclear reporting could erode confidence among data users and undermine trust in official statistics.
During the discussions, Pakistani authorities acknowledged that the trade data shared with the Geneva-based International Trade Center (ITC) was not complete and that some import figures had been missed during the reporting process. Officials clarified that the omissions were not deliberate but rather the result of the transition from PRAL’s legacy data system to the new PSW infrastructure.
PRAL, which operates under the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), previously managed Pakistan’s import data. However, PSW, established as an independent entity, now oversees trade data collection and processing with more advanced systems. The shift in platforms revealed gaps in the older data collection process, particularly regarding imports under trade facilitation schemes and raw material imports.
The IMF was briefed that discrepancies began to widen significantly during fiscal years 2023-24 and 2024-25 and have continued into the current fiscal year. To address these concerns, the IMF has instructed Pakistan to reconcile and correct its historical trade data, share updated figures with domestic stakeholders and the Fund, and publish a transparent explanation of revisions to maintain credibility.
The source of the underreporting came to light during an internal investigation into differences between Pakistan’s import data and figures reported by Chinese exporters. The inquiry, initiated by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, involved a joint task force comprising officials from the FBR, PBS, PRAL, and PSW. The review found that PBS had been using an outdated programmed query for trade data extraction since 2017, leading to consistent underreporting of imports as trade volumes expanded.
Further analysis revealed that PRAL’s data system captured only seven types of goods declarations, while PSW’s framework included fifteen, resulting in significant coverage gaps. For instance, PBS data missed transactions related to the trade facilitation scheme, which accounted for most of the $5.1 billion underreporting in fiscal year 2023-24 and $5.7 billion in the previous year.
Sector-wise, the textile industry showed the largest mismatch, with nearly $3 billion worth of imports unrecorded. The metals group followed with an underreporting of about $1 billion. Despite the IMF’s push for transparency, PBS has so far refrained from releasing revised figures, reportedly due to concerns that updated numbers could alter net export and economic growth calculations.
Officials in the Ministry of Finance have expressed caution, noting that publishing revised data could have implications for growth projections and fiscal reporting. However, the IMF continues to emphasize that transparent communication and accurate data are essential for maintaining investor and stakeholder confidence in Pakistan’s economic management.
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