The International Monetary Fund has projected that Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product could reach Rs193,630 billion by 2030, offering a medium-term outlook that highlights both growth potential and persistent structural challenges in the economy. The projections were released as part of revisions to Pakistan’s key economic indicators framework and present a more conservative trajectory compared to targets set by the federal government, particularly on exports and revenue mobilisation.
According to IMF estimates, Pakistan’s economy is expected to expand cumulatively by around Rs68,000 billion between fiscal year 2026 and 2030. However, the Fund indicated that the GDP target of Rs129,517 billion set for the ongoing fiscal year is unlikely to be achieved. Instead, GDP is now expected to reach approximately Rs126,000 billion, reflecting slower-than-anticipated momentum in economic activity.
On the external front, the IMF projects Pakistan’s exports to reach $46 billion by 2030, significantly below the government’s stated objective of $60 billion. For the next fiscal year, total exports of goods and services are estimated at $36.46 billion. The IMF forecasts exports to rise to $40 billion in 2028 and around $43 billion in 2029, before reaching $46 billion by the end of the decade. This outlook implies a projected shortfall of nearly $13.8 billion compared to official export ambitions.
The IMF’s trade projections also show imports rising at a faster pace. Imports are expected to reach $64 billion in the current fiscal year, increasing to $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029, and $82.81 billion by 2030. This represents an overall increase of nearly $18.7 billion in imports by the end of the projection period, which could continue to exert pressure on the current account if export growth does not accelerate.
On fiscal performance, the IMF expressed concern over Pakistan’s ability to significantly improve revenue collection. The Federal Board of Revenue is not expected to achieve a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% even by 2030. The ratio is projected at 11.2% in the next fiscal year and may decline slightly to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. Tax revenues are estimated at Rs13,979 billion for the current year and are projected to rise to around Rs21,500 billion by 2030. Non-tax revenues are forecast at Rs3,681 billion this year, increasing marginally to Rs3,861 billion by the end of the decade.
The IMF projects a gradual improvement in fiscal discipline, with the budget deficit declining from 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.1% by 2030. To finance these deficits, Pakistan is expected to require approximately Rs28,000 billion between 2026 and 2030, including around Rs2,300 billion from external sources.
On public debt, the IMF warned that outstanding government debt could rise to Rs117,441 billion by 2030. Despite this increase in absolute terms, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 72% this year to 60.7% by 2030, assuming sustained economic growth and fiscal consolidation. Interest payments, however, are expected to remain elevated, reaching Rs8,251 billion in the next fiscal year and increasing to Rs9,380 billion by 2030.
The IMF also reiterated that the government’s stated aim of raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13% appears difficult to achieve within the current policy and growth framework. The projections underscore the gap between policy aspirations and likely outcomes, particularly in exports, revenue mobilisation, and debt servicing, highlighting the need for structural reforms to support sustainable economic growth.
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