Khurram Schehzad, Advisor to the Finance Minister, has issued a strong rebuttal to a BBC Urdu report that painted Pakistan’s economic situation in a negative light. Responding through a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), Schehzad presented what he termed as the “real story of Pakistan’s economy,” emphasizing that the current narrative is one of resilience, reform, and recovery rather than decline.
In his post titled “Facts Over Fiction: The Real Story of Pakistan’s Economy,” Schehzad argued that Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators reveal steady progress supported by fiscal discipline, improved policy frameworks, and growing investor trust. He noted that GDP growth has increased from 2.5 percent in FY24 to 3.0 percent in FY25, with projections between 3.6 and 4.0 percent for FY26. According to him, these numbers indicate a stable recovery trajectory driven by reforms and a favorable policy environment.
Schehzad highlighted that per capita income has surged by 10 percent, reaching $1,830, while inflation has fallen dramatically from 23 percent to 4.5 percent — the lowest level in nearly a decade. He also underscored that the policy rate, once at a crippling 22 percent, has been halved to 11 percent, enabling renewed borrowing, investment, and industrial activity.
A key point in his response was Pakistan’s achievement of its first current account surplus in 14 years, totaling $2.1 billion in FY25. The State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have also jumped 55 percent year-on-year to $14.5 billion. Fiscal improvements include a record primary surplus of 2.4 percent of GDP and a reduced debt-to-GDP ratio below 70 percent.
“These are not cosmetic numbers,” Schehzad stated, emphasizing that the IMF, World Bank, ADB, and IFC have all endorsed the country’s data and reform progress. He further elaborated on structural reforms that are reshaping the economic landscape — from digitizing the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to overhauling the energy sector, restructuring state-owned enterprises, and reviving the privatization process.
Schehzad cited the First Women Bank’s acquisition by a UAE-based firm as a significant milestone, marking the first successful privatization under the renewed economic reform agenda. He also pointed out the transition to a contributory pension model, the introduction of a Medium-Term Debt Strategy, and the implementation of 177 regulatory reforms that have collectively reduced compliance costs by more than PKR 300 billion annually.
In terms of exports, Schehzad reported a broad-based rebound: goods exports rose 7 percent, services exports climbed 15 percent, and IT exports surged 18 percent in FY25. During the first quarter of FY26, total exports grew 8.2 percent year-on-year, while freelance IT exports saw an exceptional 71 percent jump. The large-scale manufacturing index also recorded a 9 percent increase between July and September 2025 — the highest growth in over three years.
Schehzad emphasized the growing role of the technology sector, noting that ICT exports reached $1.06 billion in the first quarter of FY26 and contributed nearly half of Pakistan’s services exports. The ICT trade surplus also expanded to $953 million. The Pakistan Stock Exchange reflected this optimism, gaining 60 percent in FY25 as investor sentiment improved.
The advisor highlighted that global credit rating agencies — Fitch, S&P, and Moody’s — have upgraded Pakistan’s sovereign outlook in 2025, reflecting global recognition of its policy improvements. He also mentioned increasing international interest from countries like Saudi Arabia, China, the UAE, and the United States, with new investments targeting refining, mining, ports, and technology.
Summing up, Schehzad concluded that Pakistan’s economy is not in decline but in transition. “Inflation is down. Interest rates are down. Reserves and exports are up. Fiscal accounts are in surplus. Ratings are upgraded. Reforms are underway. Pakistan’s economy is not failing; it’s reforming, stabilizing, and gaining global recognition,” he asserted.
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