KSE-100 Dips After Volatile Session Despite Early Rally on Stable Policy Rate

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a day of sharp swings on Tuesday, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index reversed strong early gains and ended the session in negative territory. Despite a promising start buoyed by monetary policy stability, profit-taking pressure later in the day dragged the index down by 254.31 points, or 0.21%, to close at 121,971.04.

The trading session was marked by high volatility, with the index fluctuating within a wide range of 1,076.23 points. It touched an intraday high of 122,891.61, showing a 666.26-point surge during early trade, while the lowest point dipped to 121,815.38, down 409.97 points from the previous close. Total volume on the benchmark index clocked in at a substantial 203.25 million shares, indicating robust participation but uncertain sentiment.

Investors initially responded positively to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to maintain the policy rate at 11%, a move widely anticipated by market participants. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cited inflation figures for May that aligned with projections. Headline inflation came in at 3.5% year-on-year, and core inflation showed a marginal decline — reinforcing the SBP’s stance of holding interest rates steady.

These signals helped trigger an early buying spree, particularly in key sectors such as automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, oil and gas exploration, oil marketing companies (OMCs), power generation, and refineries. Large-cap stocks including HUBCO, MARI, POL, PPL, PSO, SNGPL, and ARL led the rally during the initial hours of trading.

However, the momentum proved unsustainable. As the day progressed, profit-taking intensified, wiping out earlier gains and pushing the index into the red. By session end, out of the 100 companies on the index, 62 ended with losses, 37 managed gains, while one remained flat.

Among the notable laggards, Pakistan GasPort Consortium Limited (PKGP) saw a 10.00% drop, hitting its lower limit. Other significant decliners included YOUW (-5.42%), NPL (-2.41%), K-Electric (-2.23%), and KTML (-2.09%). These stocks exerted considerable downward pressure on the index, with PKGP alone pulling it down by over 131 points.

On the flip side, Bank of New York Mellon Pakistan (BNWM) emerged as the top gainer with a 10.01% surge. POML (+6.67%), FHAM (+3.55%), Nishat Mills Limited (NML, +3.39%), and PSEL (+2.94%) also provided support.

From an index contribution standpoint, UBL added 68.44 points, HBL 65.73, Systems Limited 58.69, OGDC 26.10, and PSEL 23.28. Conversely, LUCK (-82.60 points), ENGROH (-40.59), HUBC (-36.11), and FFC (-29.12) joined PKGP in pulling the market lower.

The performance followed Monday’s mixed session, where the KSE-100 had managed a nominal gain of 81.79 points, closing at 122,225.36. That modest rise hinted at a cautious investor mood, further reinforced by Tuesday’s reversal.

Market analysts believe the sharp intraday fluctuations are a reflection of investors’ continued sensitivity to macroeconomic cues and fiscal policy developments. While the monetary policy decision offered some reassurance, upcoming budget implications and global uncertainties appear to be keeping sentiment fragile.

The PSX’s struggle to hold onto gains despite positive catalysts indicates that investor confidence remains brittle, with market participants awaiting clearer direction on tax reforms, budget execution, and broader economic recovery signals.