The National Accounts Committee (NAC) held its 111th meeting on December 30, 2024, at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) headquarters in Islamabad. The meeting, chaired by the Secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (M/O PD&SI), focused on reviewing and approving key economic indicators, including the updated growth rates for FY2022-23 and FY2023-24, as well as the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of FY2024-25.
The committee approved a revised GDP growth rate of 2.5% for FY2023-24, slightly down from the previously estimated 2.52%. This adjustment was primarily due to a downward revision in the forestry sector, where growth shifted from 3.05% to -0.89% as a result of a decline in timber production. However, agriculture saw an improvement, with growth rising from 17.02% to 17.12%, leading to a slight increase in overall agricultural output.
In contrast, the industrial sector experienced a negative shift, with its contraction widening from 1.15% to 1.65%. A significant contributor to this decline was the mining and quarrying sector, which saw a major downturn from 3.47% to -4.16%, driven by reduced coal and limestone production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. Despite these setbacks, the services sector performed well, with growth increasing from 2.15% to 2.35%, driven by strong performances in transport, information and communication, education, and health.
For Q1 of FY2024-25, Pakistan’s economy posted a growth rate of 0.92%. Agriculture grew by 1.15%, while industry contracted by 1.03% and services expanded by 1.43%. The agricultural sector saw a sharp decline in important crops, with a contraction of 11.19% due to reduced production of cotton, maize, rice, and sugarcane. The livestock sector, however, grew by 4.89%, benefiting from increased livestock products and reduced inputs such as dry fodder. Forestry and fishing also saw modest growth, at 0.78% and 0.82%, respectively.
The industrial sector, although still contracting, showed signs of improvement, with the rate of contraction slowing from 4.43% in Q1 of FY2023-24 to 1.03% in FY2024-25. Key industries such as mining and quarrying continued to struggle, with significant declines in coal, gas, and crude oil production. The construction industry, impacted by a drop in cement production, saw a sharp decline of 14.91%. However, the electricity, gas, and water supply sector posted modest growth of 0.58%.
The services sector’s growth in Q1 FY2024-25, though slower than the previous year, remained positive at 1.43%. Notable contributors to this growth included wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food services, information and communication, and education. However, sectors such as transportation and public administration experienced contractions.
In addition to approving the growth estimates, the NAC also introduced quarterly estimates for the expenditure side of the economy, including net taxes, GDP, net primary income, and gross national income (GNI). These estimates, which were incorporated into Pakistan’s National Statistical System in September 2024, are expected to provide more detailed insights into the country’s economic performance.
Based on the updated national accounts for FY2023-24, the overall size of the economy was estimated at Rs 105.6 trillion (US$ 373.3 billion), with a per capita income of Rs 472,263 (US$ 1,669). However, the series of per capita income figures from FY2016-17 onwards will be revised upon the completion of updated population projections based on the 2023 Population Census.
The NAC meeting concluded with appreciation for the efforts of the National Accounts team at PBS, as well as key stakeholders including the Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan for their contributions to the preparation of quarterly GDP estimates.