Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Index (SPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.90% for the week ended December 11, 2025, indicating continued inflationary pressure on essential household items, despite a marginal week-on-week decline of 0.03%, according to the latest figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The combined SPI, calculated on the base year 2015–16=100 and covering 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 cities, stood at 335.73 points during the review week, slightly lower than 335.84 points recorded a week earlier. While the minor weekly easing offers limited relief to consumers, particularly in urban areas where food and energy account for a significant share of household spending, the annual increase highlights persistent cost pressures stemming from supply constraints and administered price adjustments.
According to PBS data, price movements during the week remained mixed. Of the 51 monitored items, prices of 12 items, or 23.53%, increased, while 10 items, or 19.61%, registered declines. Prices of the remaining 29 items, representing 56.86% of the basket, remained unchanged. This distribution reflects short-term volatility in food prices alongside relatively stable trends in several non-food essentials.
On a weekly basis, the most notable price declines were observed in perishable food items. Tomato prices dropped sharply by 16.18%, followed by sugar, which declined 4.91%. Onion prices fell by 4.08%, while potatoes became cheaper by 1.71%. These reductions helped ease food costs for low-income households, where such items form a substantial portion of daily consumption.
However, price increases in several key staples offset part of this relief. Chicken prices surged by 6.19% during the week, driven largely by seasonal demand patterns. Wheat flour prices increased by 2.88%, while egg prices edged up by 0.93%, reflecting volatility in protein and staple food categories. Edible oil prices also showed upward movement, with cooking oil (5-litre) rising 0.72% and vegetable ghee (2.5 kg) increasing 0.70%. Tea prepared and powdered milk recorded modest weekly increases of 0.56% and 0.39%, respectively.
On an annual basis, the 3.90% increase in SPI was driven primarily by higher prices of sugar, which rose 30.28%, and gas charges for the first quarter, which increased 29.85%. Wheat flour prices were up 21.59% year-on-year, while gur recorded a 14.96% increase, highlighting sustained inflation in essential food items and utilities. Meat and fuel costs also contributed to the annual rise, with beef prices climbing 13.42%, firewood up 12.86%, and diesel increasing 8.42%, adding to transport and heating expenses.
Some items, however, recorded significant year-on-year declines, providing partial offsets to overall inflation. Potato prices fell by 42.59%, tomatoes by 40.75%, garlic by 37.46%, and onions by 30.23%. Pulse gram prices dropped 28.95%, largely attributed to improved domestic supply and better harvest outcomes.
The data also reveals varying inflationary impacts across different income groups. The lowest consumption quintile, comprising households earning up to Rs17,732 per month, experienced a week-on-week decline of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. In contrast, the highest income group, with monthly earnings above Rs44,175, recorded a 0.02% weekly increase and a 3.47% annual rise. The middle-income group, represented by the third quintile, faced the highest year-on-year increase at 4.08%, indicating a relatively heavier burden on middle-class households.
Historical trends suggest a gradual moderation in SPI inflation. The combined index has eased from around 4.00% year-on-year in early December to 3.90%, and remains below levels exceeding 5% observed in October. Quarterly data for the fourth quarter of FY2025–26 shows the SPI for the lowest income group at 317.38 points, reflecting a 5.68% quarter-on-quarter increase but only a 2.08% rise compared to the same period last year, pointing toward some stabilisation in price trends.
Economists view the recent weekly decline as a temporary breather, potentially linked to improved supply of perishable goods. However, they caution that upside risks remain, particularly from global commodity price fluctuations and the possibility of further energy tariff adjustments. As a result, while short-term relief may continue in select food items, broader inflation dynamics are expected to remain sensitive to fiscal and energy-related policy decisions in the coming months.
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