Pakistan is positioning itself among emerging global defence exporters as it lines up potential defence export orders worth an estimated $13 billion, a development that could significantly reshape the country’s external accounts and industrial landscape over the medium term. The move comes as Islamabad seeks to capitalise on recently enhanced diplomatic standing and growing international interest in cost-effective military platforms.
According to KTrade Securities Research Analyst M Faran Khan, Pakistan’s improved geopolitical positioning following its recent conflict with India has translated into broader strategic engagements and defence-related discussions. In a research note, Khan observed that the post-conflict environment has strengthened Pakistan’s diplomatic leverage, with defence agreements and export prospects emerging as a tangible outcome of these engagements.
A macro research note by KTrade Securities suggests that Pakistan’s defence sector is entering a phase of accelerated outward orientation. This shift is being driven by rising geopolitical demand, the operational success of indigenous defence platforms, and expanding state-to-state defence relationships across regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia. The estimated $13 billion export pipeline reportedly includes fighter aircraft, trainer jets, armoured vehicles, drones, naval platforms, and ammunition.
If these prospective deals materialise, the scale would be transformative. The estimated value is equivalent to more than 80% of Pakistan’s current foreign exchange reserves and approximately 3.7% of its gross domestic product. Analysts note that even partial realisation of this pipeline would represent a substantial departure from Pakistan’s historical position in the global arms market.
Historically, Pakistan’s defence exports have been modest. Data from the United Nations COMTRADE database, compiled by Trading Economics, shows that Pakistan exported arms and ammunition, including parts and accessories, worth $22.38 million in 2024. Over the past decade, annual exports in this category have largely remained in the low tens of millions of dollars, highlighting the scale of change implied by the current pipeline of defence deals.
Analysts attribute the renewed momentum to a combination of scale, timing, and the maturity of Pakistan’s defence manufacturing capabilities. Platforms such as the JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter aircraft, Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, Karakoram-8 jets, armed and reconnaissance drones, armoured vehicles, and naval vessels are increasingly being marketed as cost-effective alternatives for countries seeking to diversify suppliers amid rising global defence spending.
At present, Pakistan’s defence exports remain predominantly state-led. Production is concentrated in military-run or government-owned entities, including the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra, Heavy Industries Taxila, Pakistan Ordnance Factories at Wah, and Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works. These organisations design, manufacture, and export military equipment under government-to-government arrangements.
However, analysts believe the private sector could gradually enter the defence value chain. Khan noted that while sensitive equipment such as jets, tanks, and drones is currently produced by army-led organisations, private companies may initially participate as subcontractors. Over time, this involvement could expand depending on the sensitivity and complexity of the equipment.
He added that Pakistan could evolve toward a model similar to the United States, where universities and research institutions contribute to research and development, particularly in software, electronics, and advanced engineering, while private firms engage in manufacturing, systems integration, and services. Such an ecosystem could support both defence and civilian technology development.
Beyond direct exports, the research highlights the potential for recurring revenue streams through after-sales services, including maintenance, repair and overhaul, training, spare parts, and upgrades. These services often generate long-term foreign exchange inflows that extend well beyond initial equipment sales.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Pakistan’s total goods and services exports currently hover around $37 billion annually, with textiles and agriculture dominating the mix. A meaningful expansion of defence exports could help diversify the export base, reduce vulnerability to commodity cycles, and ease pressure on the balance of payments.
KTrade Securities also points to potential spillover benefits for civilian sectors such as avionics, robotics, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing, alongside the creation of skilled employment and industrial upgrading. While the $13 billion figure remains a pipeline estimate rather than realised revenue, analysts say even partial execution would mark a structural shift, positioning Pakistan as a more consequential player in the global defence market.
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