Pakistan’s weekly inflation, measured through the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), recorded a 3.87% year-on-year increase for the week ended January 15, 2026, indicating continued pressure on household budgets despite easing prices of several key food staples.
The SPI, which tracks short-term price movements of essential items, is compiled on a weekly basis using prices of 51 commodities collected from 50 markets across 17 cities. It is widely used as a key indicator of consumer-level inflation trends, particularly for low- and middle-income households.
According to official data, the annual increase of 3.87% was largely driven by sharp rises in staple food items and energy-related costs. Wheat flour emerged as the biggest contributor, with prices rising 34.90% compared to the same period last year. Gas charges for the lowest consumption quintile (Q1) surged by 29.85%, highlighting the disproportionate impact of inflation on lower-income households.
Other food items also recorded notable year-on-year increases. Egg prices rose by 20.85%, beef by 12.83%, and chilli powder by 12.56%. Sugar prices were higher by 10.43%, while firewood increased 10.35%. Gur recorded a rise of 9.97%, powdered milk 9.90%, and bananas 8.92%. In the non-food category, prices of lawn printed fabric and shirting rose by 8.29% and 7.93%, respectively.
In contrast, a significant decline in the prices of several vegetables and pulses provided some relief to consumers. Potato prices dropped sharply by 46.60% on a year-on-year basis, while onions fell 37.30% and garlic declined 35.91%. Tomatoes were down 32.88%, and prices of pulse gram decreased by 31.03%. Other items showing annual declines included Lipton tea at 17.79%, pulse mash at 13.69%, pulse masoor at 9.55%, diesel at 1.27%, and petrol at 0.95%, reflecting relatively lower fuel costs compared to last year.
On a week-on-week basis, the SPI posted a modest increase of 0.25%, suggesting a slight pickup in short-term inflationary pressures. Weekly data showed tomato prices jumping 27.64%, followed by LPG at 7.03% and wheat flour at 3.26%. Eggs increased by 2.19%, bananas by 1.68%, and chilli powder by 1.02%. Firewood, pulse moong, georgette fabric, mustard oil, and powdered milk also recorded marginal weekly increases.
Meanwhile, notable week-on-week declines were observed in potato prices, which fell 6.72%, and onions, which declined 3.82%. Chicken prices dropped by 1.66%, while minor decreases were also recorded in salt powder, pulse gram, broken basmati rice, vegetable ghee (1kg), and pulse masoor.
Income-wise analysis showed that the burden of inflation varied across consumption groups. Year-on-year inflation ranged from 3.16% for the highest-income quintile (Q5) to 4.52% for Q2, indicating persistent cost-of-living pressures for middle- and lower-income segments of the population.
Out of the 51 items monitored during the week, prices of 13 items increased, 13 items decreased, while 25 items remained unchanged. The mixed price movement highlights uneven inflation dynamics, with food and energy costs continuing to weigh on households despite relief from seasonal declines in vegetable prices.
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