KARACHI – April 20, 2025: The Pakistani rupee is expected to hold steady against the US dollar in the upcoming week, as economic tailwinds and international confidence continue to support the local currency. According to financial analysts, the rupee is likely to maintain a tight trading range, mirroring the stability observed in recent sessions.
During the past week, the rupee remained range-bound, fluctuating between 280.46 and 280.71 per dollar in the interbank market. This performance signals a strong phase of consolidation for the currency, largely fueled by a remarkable current account surplus. Pakistan reported a record-breaking surplus of $1.2 billion in March alone—a figure that has not been seen in over two decades. Experts now forecast a full fiscal year surplus of around $1.5 billion, which is a highly optimistic indicator for the country’s external position.
The local financial data terminal, Tresmark, noted that while global markets are grappling with volatility and uncertainty, Pakistan’s foreign exchange outlook stands out as notably positive. “The situation here is even stranger—in a good way,” stated the platform in a recent analysis. Contributing factors include a weaker US dollar globally and a sharp increase in Pakistan’s surplus, which has significantly reduced speculative pressure on the rupee.
Globally, the dollar index has fallen below the critical threshold of 100 and appears poised to continue its downward trend towards 92. This decline in the dollar’s value has further strengthened emerging market currencies, including the rupee, by improving their relative attractiveness to investors.
Adding to the rupee’s resilience is a recent upgrade by Fitch Ratings, which raised Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating from ‘CCC+’ to ‘B-’. The upgrade was driven by the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms and steady progress under the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. Pakistan is expected to receive $2.3 billion in upcoming IMF disbursements—$1 billion through the Extended Fund Facility and $1.3 billion from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). These inflows are expected to provide critical support to the country’s foreign exchange reserves and overall financial health.
However, not all signs are pointing upward. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported a decline of $127 million in foreign exchange reserves, bringing the total to $10.57 billion. This dip is attributed to scheduled external debt repayments. Some financial analysts caution that while the broader outlook is stable, the rupee could experience a managed, gradual depreciation of approximately 5 paisa per week. This minor adjustment would accommodate ongoing outflows from treasury bills and repatriation of corporate profits.
Despite this, the real effective exchange rate (REER) currently stands at 101.6, suggesting that the rupee remains competitively priced on the global stage. As many countries engage in tactical currency devaluation amid trade tensions, Pakistan’s careful management of its exchange rate strategy may continue to shield the rupee from excessive volatility.
In summary, while minor headwinds persist, Pakistan’s currency appears well-positioned to sustain its current strength in the short term—underpinned by record surpluses, external support, and a favorable global monetary environment.