The Pakistani rupee made a modest gain of 15 paisas against the US dollar today, ending at PKR 277.70 in the interbank foreign exchange market compared to yesterday’s close of PKR 277.85. This improvement, although slight, reflects positive shifts in Pakistan’s economic landscape, bolstered by stronger dollar inflows, an improving balance of payments, and a narrowed trade deficit, all of which are fostering confidence in the national currency.
The uptick in the rupee’s value comes amid a series of encouraging economic signals. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported an increase of $32 million in foreign exchange reserves over the past week, reflecting a stable influx of foreign funds. As of October 25, 2024, Pakistan’s total reserves stood at $16.049 billion, compared to $16.017 billion on October 18. This modest gain in reserves was fueled primarily by an increase of $115 million in SBP’s own reserves, which rose to $11.156 billion from $11.041 billion over the same period. The rise in reserves is seen as a critical factor underpinning the rupee’s stability.
Adding further support to the currency’s appreciation is recent trade data published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), which shows a reduction in the trade deficit. In the first four months of the fiscal year 2024-25 (July to October), the trade deficit shrank by 5.59%, narrowing to $6.97 billion compared to $7.39 billion during the same period last year. This decline in the deficit is credited largely to a surge in exports and a controlled increase in imports, both of which are reshaping Pakistan’s balance of payments outlook.
According to PBS data, Pakistan’s exports have grown significantly, reaching $10.88 billion, marking a 13.45% increase year-on-year from $9.59 billion. This export growth reflects heightened demand in key international markets, bolstering the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Meanwhile, imports have grown at a slower pace of 5.17%, totaling $17.85 billion during the July-October period. This tempered import growth, coupled with robust export performance, has contributed to the shrinking trade deficit and provided an added boost to the rupee’s value.
Currency experts are optimistic that this trend of a stronger rupee could continue in the short term, provided that the favorable economic indicators remain consistent. With foreign exchange reserves gradually increasing, export growth remaining strong, and a narrowing trade deficit, the market outlook for the rupee appears stable, supported by broader economic improvements.
The recent appreciation of the rupee underscores the impact of these enhanced dollar inflows and positive economic developments. Analysts suggest that if the trends in exports, reserves, and trade deficit persist, Pakistan’s currency may continue to benefit. However, they also caution that external economic factors and policy decisions will play a crucial role in determining the rupee’s stability in the medium to long term.
As the Pakistani rupee builds on these economic gains, the country’s foreign exchange dynamics and trade balance continue to drive cautious optimism for a more resilient currency market in the coming months.