Earnings estimates for United Bank Limited (UBL), Habib Bank Limited (HBL) and Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) have been revised upward by 11% to 30% for 2026 and 2027, reflecting stronger-than-expected balance sheet growth, improved deposit mobilisation and higher non-funded income across Pakistan’s banking sector. According to a banking sector assessment by Topline Research, the upward revisions follow better-than-anticipated quarterly financial results and improved income from investments, foreign exchange transactions and banking services. Higher deposit growth, stronger current account contributions and capital gains have also supported the revised earnings outlook. The assessment further considered the changing interest rate environment and its potential impact on banks’ profitability over the coming years. Among the three institutions, Bank Alfalah recorded the largest upward revision, while UBL and HBL also received improved earnings forecasts based on their financial performance and income-generation trends.
UBL’s earnings estimates have been increased by 13% to 17%, taking projected earnings per share to Rs59.5 for 2026 and Rs62.6 for 2027. The bank is expected to achieve deposit growth of 32% during 2026, following exceptionally strong growth of 96% recorded in 2025. Its current account mix also improved to 55.9% in September 2026 from 49.9% in December 2025, indicating a stronger contribution from relatively lower-cost deposits. Topline Research expects improved current account mobilisation and growth in non-funded income, excluding capital gains, to remain important contributors to the bank’s earnings. At its last closing share price of Rs425, UBL was trading at 6.8 times its estimated 2027 price-to-earnings ratio and 1.8 times its price-to-book value, with an estimated dividend yield of 8%.
HBL’s earnings estimates have been upgraded by 11% to 15%, with projected earnings per share reaching Rs49.9 for 2026 and Rs51.7 for 2027. The revised forecasts are primarily supported by improvements in the bank’s deposit mix and higher non-funded income. According to the research assessment, HBL’s non-funded income is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year to Rs96 billion in 2026, supported by stronger fee and commission earnings alongside foreign exchange income. Foreign exchange income is projected to nearly double to Rs16 billion during the year, providing an additional contribution to overall revenue. However, the assessment anticipates some moderation in non-funded income growth during 2027, mainly because of lower expected capital gains. At its last closing price of Rs300, HBL was trading at 5.8 times its estimated 2027 price-to-earnings ratio and 0.8 times its price-to-book value, with a dividend yield of 8%.
Bank Alfalah recorded the largest upward revision among the three institutions, with its earnings estimates increased by 24% to 30%. Its projected earnings per share have been revised to Rs12 for 2026 and Rs11.6 for 2027. The improved outlook reflects stronger average current account growth, higher foreign exchange earnings and better treasury management. The bank is also expected to maintain cost discipline, with its cost-to-income ratio projected to decline to 62% in 2026 from 64% in 2025. Its involvement in trade-related activities and foreign exchange transactions is expected to support income generation, while improved operational efficiency could contribute to profitability. At its last closing share price of Rs59, Bank Alfalah was trading at 5.1 times its estimated 2027 price-to-earnings ratio and 0.9 times its price-to-book value, with an estimated dividend yield of 10%.
The revised forecasts highlight the contribution of deposit mobilisation, foreign exchange transactions, investment gains and operational efficiency to the earnings outlook of Pakistan’s major commercial banks. While UBL is expected to benefit from stronger deposit growth and an improved current account mix, HBL’s revised projections reflect higher fee-based and foreign exchange income. Bank Alfalah’s estimates incorporate improvements in treasury management, current account growth and cost efficiency. The upward adjustments by Topline Research indicate that recent banking sector results have exceeded several earlier expectations, prompting analysts to reassess profitability projections for the coming two years. The performance of these institutions will remain linked to deposit trends, interest rate movements, investment returns and the ability to generate sustainable non-funded income.
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