The World Bank’s latest “Food Security Update” predicts rising wheat imports for key importers, including Pakistan. This is partly due to the Pakistani government’s decision to allow duty-free private sector imports, accelerating import activity.
Global wheat production for 2023-24 has seen a slight increase to 787.4 MMT, the second-highest on record. This is primarily driven by higher yields in the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan, offsetting lower production in Tunisia. The EU’s wheat production has risen by 0.5 MMT, while Pakistan’s figures have been revised upwards based on government data. Tunisia, however, saw a 0.4 MMT downward revision due to reduced yields and harvested areas.
While global production is rising, key importers like Pakistan, the EU, and Indonesia are expected to increase imports. This will outweigh reductions in countries like Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Algeria, for example, is forecasted to reach record import levels (9.0 MMT) due to strong Durum imports from Mexico.
Pakistan’s accelerated imports are a direct result of the government’s duty-free private import policy. The EU’s imports have also risen to 13.5 million tonnes, driven by strong imports from Ukraine. Indonesia is expected to reach a record import volume of 12.0 MMT.
Food security challenges vary by region. The Philippines, for instance, is expected to increase rice imports by 14% (4.1 million tonnes) due to a projected decrease in local production. In 2023, 82% of the Philippines’ rice imports came from Vietnam, with the remainder sourced from India, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Thailand.
The World Bank also highlights Pakistan’s consumer price inflation for food items, which reached 17.2% in March, the highest rate in South Asia. This data underscores the evolving dynamics in global food security and the measures countries take to address their specific challenges.