The Chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), Malik Bostan, has said that the US Dollar could decline significantly against the Pakistani Rupee (PKR), potentially falling below the Rs250 level, driven by improving macroeconomic indicators and a surge in defence exports.
Speaking on a television programme, Bostan cited growing international interest in Pakistan’s JF-17 fighter jets, noting that around 15 countries are reportedly considering imports. He said this rise in defence exports, along with broader economic improvements, could place sustained downward pressure on the dollar.
Quoting recent trends, Bostan said the rupee has already recovered by around Rs30 from its historic low near Rs340 per dollar. Over the past six months alone, the dollar has declined from above Rs290 to around Rs281, a drop of nearly Rs9. He rejected claims that the rupee’s current stability is temporary, asserting that the “real value” of the PKR against the dollar is below Rs250.
The ECAP chairman attributed the improving outlook to multiple factors, including a sharp recovery in the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which has surged from around 46,000 points to nearly 185,000 points. He also highlighted a significant improvement in foreign exchange reserves, which have risen from below $3 billion in 2022 to approximately $22 billion at present.
Responding to criticism of the government’s economic performance, Bostan said the economy had previously been “completely devastated,” and rebuilding naturally requires time. He recalled that only a few years ago there were fears of the dollar reaching Rs500, whereas expectations are now shifting toward Rs250 or even lower levels.
While acknowledging that exports have declined in recent years, Bostan attributed the slowdown largely to climate change–induced floods that damaged crops and reduced agricultural output over the past three years. He expressed confidence that exports would rebound as conditions normalize.
He also pointed to rising overseas employment as a key positive indicator. According to Bostan, more than 700,000 Pakistanis went abroad last year, including a large number of skilled and technical professionals such as doctors, engineers, electricians, and accountants. He said this trend could help push remittances from around $35 billion to nearly $45 billion next year.
Bostan projected that higher remittances would further strengthen foreign exchange reserves, support the rupee, bolster the stock market, and contribute to overall economic stability.
Source: https://pakobserver.net/currency-forecast-2026-dollar-likely-to-drop-below-rs250-against-rupee/
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