Pakistan’s aviation industry is grappling with its most severe operational and financial crisis since the 2022 floods, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East have effectively paralyzed regional air corridors. Over the past 17 days, approximately 1,955 flights have been cancelled across Pakistan’s major international hubs, including Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad. The disruption intensified following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, a strategic chokepoint that has sent global energy markets into a tailspin. On Monday alone, more than 90 flights were grounded, leaving over 110,000 passengers seeking refunds for travel to the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran.
The most immediate blow to the sector has come from a historic spike in fuel costs. In less than three weeks, the price of Jet A-1 fuel (used by commercial airliners) has surged by Rs154 per litre, jumping from Rs188.93 to a record Rs342.37 per litre—an 82 percent increase. This energy shock has forced a dramatic repricing of air travel; domestic ticket prices have climbed by up to Rs15,000, while international fares have surged by as much as Rs150,000 on long-haul routes. Industry experts warn that for airlines operating without fuel hedging, these costs are unsustainable and may lead to further service suspensions.
The crisis has also extended to the future of the industry: pilot training. Aviation gasoline (Avgas), essential for training aircraft and air ambulances, has risen to Rs670 per litre. Because this specialized fuel is produced at only five locations globally and imported in small shipments, Karachi’s training academies report that current reserves may last only one month. The cost of completing a pilot training program has overnight increased by approximately Rs1 million, threatening to bring small aircraft operations to a complete standstill if supply lines through the Gulf remain blocked.
While flights to Saudi Arabia, Europe, and Canada continue to operate using circumnavigational routes, the added flight time and fuel burn are eroding profit margins for national and private carriers. Travel agents, who typically earn a small service fee per ticket, are now facing massive losses due to the volume of processed refunds and a sharp decline in new bookings ahead of the Eid-ul-Fitr holidays. Aviation authorities and the Ministry of Petroleum are currently in talks with regional partners to secure alternative fuel supply chains, but until the geopolitical situation stabilizes, the sector remains in a state of high-altitude turbulence.
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