Pakistan is bracing for a difficult summer season as the government prepares to navigate a complex energy crisis fueled by regional geopolitical instability. With the Middle East conflict disrupting global supply chains, senior officials in the Power Division have indicated that the country will likely adopt a hybrid management model. This strategy includes a combination of scheduled load-shedding, compulsory energy conservation measures, and significant tariff hikes. As summer demand peaks, the national grid faces a perfect storm of reduced fuel availability and skyrocketing costs for alternative energy sources, forcing policymakers to make tough decisions to maintain grid stability.
The most pressing challenge is the projected near-zero availability of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) starting next month. LNG typically accounts for over 21 percent of Pakistan’s total power generation. Even an immediate end to regional hostilities would not resolve the supply gap for the upcoming peak season. Furthermore, the supply of both imported and local coal—which together contribute nearly 30 percent of the national power supply—is expected to remain on the lower side. To fill this massive vacuum, the government is turning to furnace oil as a contingency fuel. While domestic stocks are currently sufficient for about 25 days, the cost of generating power from furnace oil has more than doubled due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reaching approximately Rs 35 per unit.
The financial implications for consumers are stark. Internal estimates suggest that fuel cost adjustments could rise by Rs 10 to Rs 12 per unit, largely because four of the country’s most efficient LNG-based power plants, capable of producing 5,000 megawatts, will remain underutilized. While High-Speed Diesel (HSD) is technically an option for power generation, its cost has surged beyond Rs 80 per unit. Moreover, HSD remains a critical resource for the transport and agriculture sectors, particularly with the spring harvest season approaching, making it an unviable candidate for the national power grid.
Adding to the exogenous shocks is a layer of domestic administrative friction. Officials have raised concerns over “bureaucratic wrangling” that is jeopardizing between 1,500 and 1,800 megawatts of coal-based generation. A dispute between Pakistan Railways and the managements of the Sahiwal and Jamshoro power plants has hindered the transport of coal. Currently, fuel stocks at these critical facilities have depleted to between three and seven days. If these logistical bottlenecks are not resolved through high-level intervention from the Prime Minister’s Office, the country could face an additional 2.5 to 3 hours of daily load-shedding on top of the already planned two-hour average.
The government is also looking at aggressive gas diversion strategies to keep the lights on. Supplies to the CNG sector may be fully suspended to free up approximately 30 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), and gas currently curtailed for fertilizer plants could be redirected to the power sector. Despite these maneuvers, the sheer scale of the generation gap means that “demand management”—a technical term for load-shedding—is becoming an inevitable reality for the summer of 2026. The growing reliance on domestic solar power has helped reduce some daytime grid demand, but it is insufficient to cover the massive evening peaks that occur when solar generation ceases.
As the Power Ministry and NEPRA finalize the seasonal strategy, the focus remains on balancing consumer relief with fiscal survival. The transition to expensive furnace oil and the logistical hurdles in coal transport suggest that electricity bills will remain high for the foreseeable future. Policymakers are now urging the public and the industrial sector to adopt strict conservation habits as the country navigates one of its most challenging energy periods in recent history.
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