Pakistan is expected to experience a significant net outflow of $31.72 billion in foreign currency assets due to maturing loans, securities, and deposits, according to the latest liquidity report released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The most critical segment of this outflow falls in the more than three months up to one-year maturity bracket, accounting for $22.55 billion, signaling potential short-term pressure on the country’s external account.
Outflows of $4.20 billion are due within the next month, while an additional $4.97 billion is expected between the one-to-three-month period. Principal repayments alone total $28.29 billion, with $19.89 billion concentrated in the three-month to one-year window. Interest obligations further add $3.42 billion, including $2.67 billion in the longest maturity segment. Forward and futures positions indicate a net shortfall of $1.84 billion, dominated by $2.22 billion in short positions partially offset by $385 million in long positions.
The figures underscore the importance of continued inflows, timely rollovers, and prudent management of external liabilities to preserve the adequacy of Pakistan’s foreign reserves. As of January 31, 2026, the country’s official reserve assets totaled $27.72 billion. The reserve composition includes $15.01 billion in foreign currency reserves held in convertible currencies, representing the most liquid portion of the central bank’s external buffers. Gold holdings provide further support, with 2.083 million fine troy ounces valued at $10.37 billion, acting as a strategic hedge against currency volatility and external shocks.
Currency and deposits with various institutions comprise $12.19 billion of reserves, including $7.79 billion with national central banks, the Bank for International Settlements, and the International Monetary Fund, while $4.38 billion is held with foreign banks. An additional $13.59 million is maintained with domestic banks’ foreign branches. Pakistan’s IMF reserve position stands at $0.16 million, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) contribute $237.52 million to total reserves. Beyond official holdings, the country holds $98.33 million in other foreign currency assets.
The near-term outlook for Pakistan’s external account remains challenging as substantial obligations coincide with pressure on foreign exchange buffers. Careful liquidity planning, strategic rollovers, and proactive management of maturing obligations are expected to play a crucial role in maintaining macroeconomic stability in the coming months.
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