Pakistan’s economy recorded gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.65% during fiscal year 2025-26, according to revised estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) following the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on October 19, 2026. The updated growth rate is slightly below the 3.70% estimate announced at the committee’s previous meeting, indicating a modest downward revision to the country’s annual economic performance. The latest national accounts data also placed the size of Pakistan’s economy at Rs126.4 trillion, equivalent to approximately $450.4 billion, compared with Rs114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, in the preceding fiscal year. The revised figures provide an updated assessment of activity across agriculture, industry and services, reflecting changes in sectoral performance and the underlying economic benchmarks.
According to the NAC, the revised growth rates for agriculture, industry and services stood at 3.50%, 3.34% and 3.81%, respectively, compared with earlier estimates of 2.89%, 3.51% and 4.09%. The adjustments show stronger performance in agriculture than previously estimated, while industrial and services growth were revised downward. The changes reflect updated information on production, trade, transportation, manufacturing and other economic activities used to calculate national output. The revised estimates offer a more detailed picture of the factors contributing to economic expansion during FY2026, although the different performance levels across sectors indicate that growth remained uneven. The committee also approved revisions to quarterly GDP figures and released a fresh estimate for the fourth quarter, providing a more comprehensive assessment of economic activity throughout the fiscal year.
Agriculture recorded revised growth of 3.50%, supported by improvements in important crops and other agricultural activities. Growth in important crops increased from 0.65% to 1.59%, with wheat and maize contributing to the improvement. Other crops recorded a stronger revision, rising from 2.43% to 4.28%, supported by increased production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Production of pulses increased by 6.3%, fruits by 1.3%, tomatoes by 44%, oilseeds by 5.4% and green fodder by 2.4%, according to the committee’s figures. These revisions indicate stronger output in several agricultural categories than earlier estimates had suggested. Livestock growth, however, edged down slightly from 3.75% to 3.71%, which the NAC attributed to increased fodder inputs. Forestry and fishing recorded updated growth rates of 10.80% and 1.39%, respectively.
Industrial growth was revised downward to 3.34% from the previous estimate of 3.51%. Within the sector, mining and quarrying improved, with growth revised from 0.38% to 1.52%. The committee linked the improvement to higher output in gas, crude oil and coal, which recorded growth rates of 2.84%, 5.12% and 2.73%, respectively. Large-scale manufacturing, however, experienced a downward revision. Growth measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing declined from the earlier estimate of 6.11% to 5.01%. The difference between the performance of mining and quarrying and the revised manufacturing figure illustrates the varying trends within the industrial sector. Although industrial activity expanded overall during FY2026, the latest estimates show that the pace of growth was lower than previously anticipated.
The services sector recorded revised growth of 3.81%, compared with the earlier estimate of 4.09%. Wholesale and retail trade growth declined to 2.37% from 3.71%, with the NAC attributing the change to decreases in manufacturing activity and imports. Transport and storage, by contrast, improved to 3.23% from 2.31%, reflecting upward revisions in railway, water transport and air transport activities. Information and communication emerged as one of the stronger-performing areas, with growth increasing from 7.52% to 9.53%. Finance and insurance also improved significantly, with the growth estimate rising from 0.32% to 4.23%, supported by improvements in the insurance industry. These figures indicate that the services sector continued to expand, but performance differed considerably across its constituent industries.
The revised national accounts also showed an increase in the overall value of Pakistan’s economy. The GDP estimate for FY2026 reached Rs126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, compared with Rs114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, in FY2025. The NAC reported per capita income of Rs531,897, equivalent to approximately $1,896, for FY2026. Per capita income represents an average measure derived from national income and population figures and does not indicate the actual income received by every individual or household. The increase in the nominal dollar value of the economy provides a measure of its overall size, while real GDP growth offers a separate assessment of changes in economic output after accounting for price effects. Both measures are relevant to understanding Pakistan’s economic performance, but they describe different aspects of the national accounts.
The committee also approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of FY2026 and issued a new estimate for the fourth quarter. Overall growth for the first quarter was revised slightly downward from 3.92% to 3.89%. Growth for the second quarter increased from 4.05% to 4.31%, while the third-quarter estimate rose from 3.99% to 4.42%. The NAC said the revisions largely reflected changes to annual benchmarks in agriculture, alongside updated indicators across the major sectors. Agricultural growth was revised to 3.18% in the first quarter, 3.34% in the second quarter and 3.79% in the third quarter. Industrial growth estimates also changed, moving to 7.76%, 6.62% and 4.87% in the respective quarters. Services growth was revised to 3.04% in the first quarter, 4.0% in the second and 4.54% in the third.
For the fourth quarter of FY2026, Pakistan recorded GDP growth of 2.0%, according to the fresh estimate approved by the committee. Agriculture grew by 3.71%, while industry contracted by 4.70%. Services recorded growth of 3.62% during the same period. The quarterly figures indicate that the overall economy expanded more slowly in the final quarter than the revised annual rate might suggest, with the industrial contraction weighing on economic activity. The difference between the fourth-quarter performance and the stronger revised figures for the second and third quarters also highlights the importance of examining sectoral and quarterly data alongside the annual growth rate.
The latest estimates provide an updated assessment of Pakistan’s economic performance in FY2026, with agriculture and selected services industries showing improvements while manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade and fourth-quarter industrial activity presented weaker results. The revision of annual GDP growth to 3.65% from 3.70% reflects changes in the official assessment rather than a complete reversal of the broader economic expansion recorded during the year. As Pakistan moves through FY2027, the revised figures will serve as a reference point for evaluating future growth, sectoral recovery and changes in the composition of economic activity. Sustaining expansion will depend on performance across the major sectors and the ability of businesses and households to respond to evolving domestic and external economic conditions.
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