Pakistan’s current account balance swung into a surplus of $100 million in November 2025, marking a notable improvement from a deficit of $291 million recorded in October, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). While the turnaround reflects easing external pressures on a month-on-month basis, the surplus remains significantly lower than the $684 million recorded in November last year, highlighting the ongoing fragility of the country’s external position.
The primary driver behind the improved current account outcome was a sharp contraction in imports. Total imports in November stood at $5.68 billion, representing a decline of nearly 12 percent compared to the previous month. Analysts note that the reduction in imports reflects a combination of subdued domestic demand, administrative controls, and cautious foreign exchange management, rather than a broad-based improvement in export competitiveness.
Exports, meanwhile, continued to face pressure. Pakistan’s total exports of goods and services amounted to $3.09 billion in November, down by more than 10 percent from $3.44 billion recorded in October. The decline in exports suggests that global demand challenges, coupled with structural constraints at home, continue to weigh on the country’s export performance. The drop also underscores concerns about sustainability, as a current account improvement driven by import compression is generally viewed as less durable than one supported by export growth.
Remittance inflows, another critical pillar of Pakistan’s external account, also weakened during the month. Inflows declined by 7 percent on a month-on-month basis to $3.19 billion in November, compared to $3.42 billion in October. Despite remaining at historically strong levels, the moderation in remittances adds to uncertainty, particularly given their role in offsetting trade deficits and supporting household consumption.
Looking at the broader picture, the first five months of the ongoing fiscal year FY26 present a more challenging trend. During this period, Pakistan recorded a cumulative current account deficit of $812 million, a sharp reversal from a surplus of $503 million posted in the same period of FY25. This shift highlights the impact of rising imports earlier in the year, softer export growth, and fluctuations in remittance inflows.
Despite pressures on the current account, Pakistan’s external buffers have shown signs of strengthening. Foreign exchange reserves, excluding the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Cash Reserve Ratio (SCRR), rose to $14.68 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21 percent. The improvement in reserves suggests enhanced resilience, supported by official inflows, prudent foreign exchange management, and financing under international support programs.
Economists caution that while the November surplus offers short-term relief, underlying vulnerabilities remain. Sustained stability in the external account will depend on improving export capacity, diversifying export markets, maintaining steady remittance flows, and ensuring that import moderation does not come at the cost of industrial slowdown.
As Pakistan navigates FY26, policymakers face the challenge of balancing growth needs with external sustainability. The latest SBP data underscores that while tactical improvements are visible, long-term strengthening of the current account will require structural reforms, export-led growth, and continued confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework.
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