Pakistan’s weekly inflation showed signs of moderation during the week ending July 30, 2026, with the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recording a year-on-year increase of 9.05 percent. The latest reading pushed inflation below the double-digit mark despite continued volatility in international crude oil markets driven by geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran. The figures, released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), indicate that while fuel prices continued to respond to global developments, lower prices for several food items helped ease overall inflationary pressure.
The SPI serves as a short-term measure of inflation by tracking the prices of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 cities nationwide. According to PBS data, the combined SPI index declined by 0.91 percent compared with the previous week, falling to 357.61 from 360.88. During the same period last year, the index stood at 327.94. The year-on-year inflation reading of 9.05 percent also represented an improvement from the previous week’s 9.66 percent, suggesting that price growth has slowed slightly despite uncertainty in global energy markets.
The moderation comes at a time when international crude oil prices remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Fluctuations in oil prices have continued to influence domestic petroleum prices, affecting transportation costs and several other sectors of the economy. Although external factors continue to create inflationary risks, recent declines in the prices of selected food items helped offset some of the upward pressure generated by higher fuel costs.
During the week under review, prices increased for 27 of the 51 monitored commodities, while six items became cheaper and 18 remained unchanged. Tomatoes recorded the largest weekly decline, falling by 22.96 percent, followed by chicken, which dropped 11.20 percent. Electricity charges for consumers in the lowest consumption category also declined by 9.06 percent. Smaller reductions were recorded for bananas, sugar and pulse moong, contributing to the overall decline in the weekly index.
At the same time, several essential products registered price increases. Onion prices rose by 7.62 percent, making them the largest weekly increase among food items. Diesel prices increased by 4.17 percent, while eggs became 3.16 percent more expensive. Petrol prices rose by 2.46 percent, followed by wheat flour at 2 percent, potatoes at 1.93 percent and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at 1.90 percent. Moderate increases were also recorded for pulse gram, vegetable ghee, pulse mash, pulse masoor and firewood. According to the available data, the increase in petrol and diesel prices reflected movements in international oil markets influenced by geopolitical developments.
On an annual basis, tomatoes remained the most expensive item compared with the same period last year, recording a sharp increase of 228.71 percent. Onion prices were higher by 95.36 percent, followed by wheat flour at 78.65 percent and LPG at 51.76 percent. Diesel prices increased by 37.42 percent year-on-year, while petrol rose by 23.28 percent. Other items showing notable annual increases included mutton, chilli powder, beef, bananas, plain bread and men’s sponge slippers.
Not all essential commodities experienced higher prices over the year. Potatoes recorded the largest annual decline, falling by 30.89 percent. Pulse gram became 19.89 percent cheaper, while chicken prices declined by 19.56 percent. Sugar prices dropped by 17.48 percent compared with the corresponding week last year. Annual price reductions were also observed for salt powder, pulse masoor, eggs and pulse moong.
Inflation trends varied across different household expenditure groups. On a weekly basis, the second expenditure quintile recorded the largest decline of 1.37 percent, followed by the lowest income group with a 1.19 percent decrease. The highest expenditure group experienced a comparatively smaller decline of 0.68 percent. On a year-on-year basis, inflation ranged between 8.60 percent and 9.70 percent across all expenditure categories, with the overall combined reading standing at 9.05 percent.
The latest SPI data suggests that while lower prices for some perishable food items have provided short-term relief for consumers, Pakistan’s inflation outlook remains closely linked to developments in international energy markets. As policymakers continue to monitor domestic supply conditions alongside external economic factors, fuel prices are expected to remain one of the key drivers influencing household expenses and overall inflation in the coming months.
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