Punjab and Sindh have stepped back from their earlier commitments to purchase imported wheat, creating uncertainty over the federal government’s plan to import one million tonnes of wheat to meet domestic requirements and contain rising prices. The development comes as wheat flour prices have increased sharply, with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reporting a 77.5% year-on-year increase to Rs132.5 per kilogram from Rs75 per kilogram.
The change in position by the two provinces has left the federal government considering whether it should finance the planned one million tonnes of wheat imports through its own fiscal resources or abandon the programme and risk supply shortages. Punjab and Sindh are among the country’s major wheat-deficient provinces, but officials said both have recently indicated that they would prefer wheat from federal stocks rather than imported supplies.
During steering committee meetings held on August 9 and August 12, representatives from Punjab and Sindh reportedly expressed reluctance to proceed with imported wheat. A senior official said the provinces had indicated that they no longer wanted imported grain and instead preferred supplies from the federal government’s existing reserves. The federal government, however, has indicated that its available stocks alone may not be sufficient to meet the full requirements of the provinces.
A cabinet member said the provinces had been given another opportunity to clearly communicate their requirements and confirm whether imported wheat was actually needed. The government wants the provincial positions to be finalised before determining the next step, particularly because the federal reserves cannot independently cover all provincial requirements.
Punjab’s position has changed considerably over recent weeks. The province initially committed to purchasing one million tonnes of imported wheat, but later reduced its requirement to 800,000 tonnes. It subsequently informed a meeting chaired by Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain that it did not require imported wheat.
Rana Tanveer Hussain asked Punjab to provide the position in writing. The move was intended to establish a formal record of the province’s decision and prevent the provincial government from subsequently attributing any wheat shortage or increase in prices to the federal government.
The Punjab representative said the province was currently in a relatively comfortable supply position after receiving 800,000 tonnes of wheat from federal stocks. This included approximately 533,000 tonnes that were still awaiting collection from Pakistan Agriculture Services and Storage Corporation facilities. Punjab had also procured around 500,000 tonnes directly from farmers, compared with its original procurement target of three million tonnes.
Sindh has taken a similar position despite previously requesting a substantial quantity of wheat. At a steering committee meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday, Sindh expressed reluctance to accept imported wheat. The province had earlier requested 720,000 tonnes, including 500,000 tonnes that were expected to be imported.
Despite the provinces’ reservations, the federal government has maintained that the import programme remains under consideration. A statement issued by the office of Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said the committee had reaffirmed the decision to import one million tonnes of wheat to meet domestic requirements, ease pressure on prices and provide relief to consumers.
Prime Minister’s Coordinator on Agriculture Ahmad Umair said the federal government retains final authority over the quantity of wheat released from its reserves. According to the current approach, both locally sourced and imported wheat would be distributed among provinces on a proportionate basis.
Another official noted that even if provinces ultimately decline imported wheat in favour of wheat from federal stocks, the government would still need to consider importing grain to protect its strategic reserves. Maintaining adequate reserves remains an important part of the government’s food security planning, particularly in the event of supply disruptions or unexpected increases in domestic demand.
The provincial positions have also generated disagreement among governments. A representative from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa criticised Punjab’s decision to withdraw its earlier import requirement, arguing that Punjab’s previous claims of a wheat shortage had contributed to higher prices and adversely affected consumers in his province.
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has maintained its request for 200,000 tonnes of imported wheat in addition to another 200,000 tonnes of locally sourced wheat. Provinces have been offered wheat from government stocks at Rs4,150 per 40 kilograms, which is Rs650 higher than the rate paid to farmers.
The federal government has already allocated one million tonnes of PASSCO wheat stocks among provinces on a proportionate basis. Punjab has received the largest share, followed by Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
To establish a formal mechanism for the proposed wheat import programme, the federal Ministry of National Food Security has prepared a Tripartite Agreement. The draft agreement defines the roles, responsibilities, financial arrangements and operational procedures involving the federal food ministry, provincial governments and the Trading Corporation of Pakistan.
The draft agreement was circulated to the provinces and TCP for their feedback by August 8. However, officials said that by Thursday, none of the provinces had submitted a response. The absence of provincial feedback has added another hurdle to the implementation of the proposed wheat import programme.
The uncertainty comes at a time when consumers are already facing significantly higher flour prices. With wheat flour prices up 77.5% year-on-year, the federal government faces pressure to ensure sufficient supplies while balancing the cost of imports, provincial requirements and available public stocks.
The final decision on whether the federal government will proceed with financing one million tonnes of imports alone will depend on the provinces’ final positions and the government’s assessment of domestic wheat availability. The ongoing discussions are also expected to determine how local and imported wheat will be distributed while maintaining strategic reserves and addressing price pressures in the domestic market.
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